Ron Freedman

Getting to the next level

By Ron Freedman

Is Canada's innovation system "maxed-out"? Has it reached some sort of natural limit? That is one conclusion that could be drawn from a new report on scientific publishing in Canada, CUP 20061. Scientific publishing is a key output indicator - perhaps the key indicator - of research funding investments. Analysis of scientific publishing trends reveals a great deal about the quantity and quality of scientific research in a country ... or a specific institution.

In addition, scientific publishing trends can be used to monitor the performance of the innovation system. Publishing is also an important component of individual faculty hiring and promotion decisions. Not surprisingly, about 90% of all Canadian scientific publications in the international peer-reviewed literature are produced by researchers who work in our universities. Thus, national publishing trends mostly reflect the activities of our university system.

A fresh analysis of Canadian university researchers' publishing record in 6,000 of the world's leading scientific journals from 1999-2004 shows that Canadian university research is of high quality, on average scoring 11% better than the world mean on a key impact measure - Average Relative Impact Factor. A respectable number of individual institutions (28 out of 69) score at or above the world standard, thereby boosting the national average. Furthermore, Canadian authors rank 8th in the world in citations, another key quality indicator. Overall, analysis of scientific publications indicates that the quality of Canadian university research is high.

RANKING CANADA'S OUTPUT

Although Canada has slipped from 6th place in the world to 7th in total publications in 2003-2004, we are still performing well. With scientific publications from all sectors (including industry and government) numbering 31,209 in 2004 (90% of these from universities), Canada achieved 4th place in the world in per-capita output, tying Australia, and ranking ahead of such research-intensive countries as the US, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and most of the other advanced economies of the world. Quantity is good.

Our comprehensive and undergraduate universities have made the biggest strides over the past six years, expanding their publication output by 12.6% and 25.1% respectively since 1999. The new funding resources made available in the late 1990s have had their strongest effect at these institutions. Inexplicably, medical/doctoral universities have not grown their research output nearly as much (2.1%).

Natural sciences and engineering publishing, which is at a low level compared with world averages, is growing strongly. So is publishing in the humanities. For some unknown reason health sciences and social sciences publishing output declined slightly during the period, in spite of significant increases in funding for research in these fields.

Canadian research packs a powerful punch for its size. But it seems that punch hasn't gotten any stronger (or weaker) for nearly two decades (16 years to be precise). Since 1988, the total publishing output of Canadian research has not significantly grown nor shrunk. It's at nearly the same level as in the late 1980s. Meanwhile, the total number of world publications grew 50%, from 466,000 in 1988 to nearly 700,000 in 2003. So, a shortage of opportunities to publish cannot be the reason for Canada's static output.

Since 1988, research funding has ebbed and flowed. There were a number of funding ramp-ups and declines over the period, but none resulted in any significant increase or decrease in publication output. Output has been remarkably flat. The 3.6% increase in university publications between 1999-2004 is more closely aligned with the 0.98% increase in faculty numbers than with the 127% increase in funding.

Even stranger, this curious phenomenon of flat publication levels alongside rising incomes affects only two major research countries - Canada and the US. Researchers have found exactly the same phenomenon in the US, leaving the National Science Foundation at a loss for an explanation. But there is no such phenomenon in the other major OECD countries. Nearly everywhere else the volume of academic publishing has grown in line with funding.

The fact that this phenomenon is exclusive to North America gives rise to the idea that these two innovation systems have somehow reached capacity. Additional resources are not leading to additional output or higher quality, as both are already high.

POLICY CHALLENGE

In no way are the findings of CUP 2006 an argument for reducing research funding. For one thing, it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain Canada's world standing in the face of increased scholarship abroad. Research costs are rising. Also, new investment allows research in new or more sophisticated fields of research. Alas, we may have to get used to the idea that new investment does not improve the inherent publication output of the innovation system, which is already high. Quality (impact) is likewise high, though it shows no sign of having increased or decreased.

In light of the forthcoming (yet again) federal S&T strategy, the real challenge is to decide where we want to go from here. What do we want to achieve with our research funding? How do we convert current funding for university research - and industry, government and 4th pillar research for that matter - into economic and social benefit? How do we move to a new level?

Scientific publishing is only one indicator among many of the performance of the research system. But publications are merely an indicator, and not its ultimate objective. To borrow a baseball example, in the final analysis it's not a team's batting average that matters, it's how many games it wins. And in the case of university research, winning is about providing excellent training and service to the community, creating knowledge, and helping to turn knowledge into social and economic benefits for the country. We need to build on success and move to the next level.

Ron Freedman is a partner with The Impact Group and co-publisher of RE$EARCH MONEY

1 Canadian University Publications 2006. RE$EARCH Infosource Inc. Toronto. June 2006. www.researchinfosource.com/univPub