NRC deploys tech foresight to help formulate its long-term investment strategy

Initial report released

Technology foresight is playing an increasingly important role in determining where the National Research Council (NRC) will allocate its spending 20 to 30 years in the future. A major foresight initiative has consulted external stakeholders and staff to better understand the long-term needs of Canadians and industry. The first report from the Game Changing Initiative (GCI) has been released, compiling input from more than 261 external respondents. A second report on the internal dialogue expected later this summer.

Respondents to the external report were asked to consider seven "opportunity areas" where NRC technology might be able to move towards significant new economic activity (see chart). Those responses contain considerable insight but participants didn't stop there, generating 41 additional suggestions on where the NRC might lead.

Initial results indicate that the opportunity with the greatest promise is Cities of the Future. More than three quarters of respondents agreed that future challenges facing cities can be met with technologies that already exist or are in development if they are adequately improved, scaled up and marketed. On the other end of the spectrum, only 36% of respondents agreed that Security and Privacy offered significant future opportunities, plagued by insufficient corporate spending and inadequate R&D spending to counter growing threats.

"This document is a summary of the input. The next step is another document which is a synthesis of what we've heard with more insights for where we want to do a deeper dive and decide whether we want to launch another new program," says Dr Dan Wayner, NRC's VP emerging technologies. "There's a lot of refinement required in terms of the technology direction but it's helpful in shaping our thinking in where we should go."

Tech foresight has had a checkered history in Canada, with small pockets inside and outside of government. In the fall of 2014, NRC decided to take the lead within government, establishing an NRC foresight group that launched the GCI with an on-line consultation process to help shape its investment strategy in emerging technologies (R$, February 10/15).

An original slate of nine opportunities was whittled down to seven when it was decided that Arctic Resources and Communities was already being dealt with and that Advanced Manufacturing had been adopted as a major new thrust of the federal Science, Technology and Innovation Strategy (R$, December 10/14).

"Foresight is being built up at the NRC. It's a priority of (NRC president) John McDougall (and) is prominent in many RTOs (Research and Technology Organizations). (The) Fraunhofer (Society) has an entire institute dedicated to foresight," says Wayner. "It's an important aspect (involving) multiple timescales to determine capabilities 20 to 30 years out."

Cities of the Future

To prepare for future urban growth and living, GCI participants cited a host of technologies that could be deployed to facilitate the need for better municipal infrastructure and its management, efficient transportation, localized production, renewable energy and enhanced resource and waste management. Those technologies were matched against a number of socio-economic issues "raised as critical barriers/enablers impacting urban growth".

Rural and remote communities

A very different scenario emerged for Prosperous and Sustainable Rural and Remote Communities, although there was overlap with urban centres of the central challenges and required technologies. Key issues identified were renewable, localized energy, localized production and services, improved virtual access to the Internet, efficient transportation and better resource and waste management.

Respondents cited the need for a balance between technological advances and cultural sensitivities as well as a shift in public policies to discourage forces that diminish quality of life and encourage local job creation.

Aging Population

Quality of life for Canada's aging population offered up a cautionary scenario for the use of technologies. While many agreed that technologies are critical to maintain quality of life, others warned that overreliance on technologies and use of remote monitoring will not replace the need for strong social policies and cohesive family units.

Security and privacy

Security and privacy scored the lowest of the GCI's seven opportunities although respondents noted that better physical threat detection and the protection of data, networks and privacy were worthy of future technological innovation. Those technologies include analytics, biometrics, neuromorphic engineering, cryptography and graphene-based electronics.

While supporters said Canada needed to "stay one step ahead", most agreed that public education and an objective evaluation of the costs of security failure were required to justify "massive investment in technology development and infrastructure".

The report is curiously vague on why the majority (64%) were neutral or negative on this area as one for future NRC focus, stating only that "those who disagreed generally did so on the basis that security is an arms race".

Wayner says the preliminary results of NRC's reinvigorated foresight activities indicate that the agency can gain valuable insight from GCI by engaging the broader community.

"This is the first time NRC has done this (employed foresight to future spending decisions). It's an interesting experiment to get engagement beyond our internal processes," says Wayner. "We're very pleased with the response and encouraged this is an approach that works quite well ... We got what we were looking for."

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