Analysis: Ron Freedman, CEO, Research Infosource Inc.

Guest Contributor
June 24, 2015

Emerging trends in federal S&T spending

By Ron Freedman

In late May, Statistics Canada released its most recent data on federal government S&T spending. There was plenty to chew on and one clear paradox emerged.

The Big Picture

The first thing to note (Table 1) is that, in current dollars, total federal program spending varied between $250.8 billion and $227.6 billion in the 2011-2015 period. Also, total federal program spending in FY 2015-16 is below its FY 2011-12 peak. Federal spending on S&T as a portion of all federal program spending in the 5-year period ranged between 4.91% of the total and 4.49%. The government's spending on the R&D component of S&T varied from 3.12% to 2.80% of the total, whereas related scientific activity (RSA) spending varied from 1.81% to 1.64%.

Conclusion: Federal S&T spending declined, but so did overall spending. Broadly speaking S&T spending maintained its share of total spending in the period.

Winners and Losers

S&T: A different picture emerges when examining federal spending in constant 2011 dollars (Table 2). On average, all federal spending on S&T fell by 4% from 2011-2015, when adjusted for inflation (CPI). Federal government intramural spending fell by about 2%, which was less than the overall drop. But federal spending on S&T performed by business fell by about 9%. In comparison, the higher education sector saw federal spending decline by an adjusted 2%.

R&D: The R&D component of federal funding of S&T declined from nearly $2.76 billion in 2013 to about $2.70 billion in 2015. Federal funding of R&D performed by business declined at a faster rate; from a peak of $990 million in 2013 to $769 million projected in 2015.

Surprises

The biggest surprise in the StatCan data is the steep (11%) decline in federal spending for R&D performed in the business sector. This result runs completely counter to a key recommendation (the key recommendation?) of the report by the Tom Jenkins-led Independent Panel on Federal Support to Research and Development, namely:

"…the Panel believes the government should rebalance the mix of direct and indirect funding by decreasing spending through the SR&ED program and directing the savings to complementary initiatives strategically focussed on serving the needs of innovative Canadian firms."

Putting the squeeze on business support

What's going on here? As indicated in Table 2, Federal funds directed to R&D in the business sector leapt from $857 million to $990 million in the aftermath of the Jenkins report. Presumably, in large part this reflects a $100 million increase to IRAP's budget. Seemingly, the government had taken Jenkins' recommendation to heart. But only one year later (FY 2014-15) spending on business-performed R&D fell to $785 million, which was even less than the $860 million of spending in 2011-12. The estimated figure for 2015-16 ($769 million) is even less.

The second major surprise is that while overall federal government intramural spending on S&T declined by .02% between 2011-2012, in constant dollars, intramural R&D spending actually posted a small .02% gain. From that standpoint there has been no "war" against federal R&D. However, to compensate for the overall drop in S&T spending, federal departments had to cut back more sharply on their intramural RSA spending (by 5%).

Finally, on a departmental level (Table 3) and on a constant dollar basis, some departments gained, some came out even and some lost S&T resources.

Ron Freedman is CEO of Research Infosource Inc.

Table 1.
Federal S&T expenditures as a % of total federal spending

(Adapted from CANSIM Table 358-0142)
Total Current Dollars ($ millions)
Fiscal year2011-12   2012-13   2013-14   2014-15   2015-16   
Main estimates250,786   227,573   229,824   235,334   241,574   
Type of expenditure
Total S&T4.54%   4.91%   4.86%   4.51%   4.49%   
Research & development2.80%   3.09%   3.12%   2.88%   2.83%   
Related scientific activities1.74%   1.81%   1.74%   1.64%   1.66%   

Table 2. Federal expenditures on science and technology and its components,
by activity and performing sector (Constant $ 2011, $ million)
(Adapted from CANSIM Table 358-0144)

ActivityPerforming sector2011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-20162015 as a
% of 2011
Total S&TTotal, all performing sectors11,395   11,334   11,273   10,827   10,913   0.96   
Federal government (intramural)5,803   5,635   5,740   5,525   5,705   0.98   
Business enterprise1,090   1,047   1,235   1,011   992   0.91   
Higher education3,251   3,422   3,197   3,225   3,171   0.98   
Canadian non-profit institutions457   491   504   461   438   0.96   
Provincial and municipal governments167   109   115   145   145   0.87   
Foreign performers595   607   460   434   435   0.73   
Other Canadian performers33   22   22   25   25   0.76   
 
Total R&DTotal, all performing sectors7,030   7,145   7,229   6,921   6,872   0.98   
Federal government (intramural)2,649   2,593   2,761   2,653   2,696   1.02   
Business enterprise860   857   990   785   769   0.89   
Higher education2,944   3,135   2,921   2,963   2,918   0.99   
Canadian non-profit institutions227   247   277   253   229   1.01   
Provincial and municipal governments121   59   60   59   56   0.47   
Foreign performers210   239   204   192   187   0.89   
Other Canadian performers19   13   15   16   16   0.85   
 
Total RSATotal, all performing sectors4,365   4,190   4,044   3,905   4,042   0.93   
Federal government (intramural)3,154   3,042   2,980   2,872   3,010   0.95   
Business enterprise230   191   245   225   223   0.97   
Higher education307   285   275   262   254   0.83   
Canadian non-profit institutions230   245   226   209   208   0.91   
Provincial and municipal governments46   50   55   85   89   1.93   
Foreign performers385   368   256   244   248   0.64   
Other Canadian performers14   9   7   8   9   0.65   

Table 3. Federal expenditures on S&T
by major departments and agencies

(Constant $ 2011, $ millions) (Adapted from CANSIM 358-0163)
                % Change
Major departments & agencies2011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162015-2011
Canadian Space Agency389   305   389   374   463   1.19   
NRC807   787   999   919   950   1.18   
AECL462   498   494   493   543   1.18   
AAFC429   523   565   504   476   1.11   
Environment Canada653   650   665   712   694   1.06   
Fisheries & Oceans Canada273   263   278   277   285   1.04   
SSHRC702   711   706   735   726   1.03   
NSERC1,094   1,101   1,087   1,117   1,100   1.01   
CIHR1,019   1,019   1,014   1,042   1,023   1.00   
National Defence372   413   423   381   368   0.99   
Health Canada509   497   493   487   479   0.94   
CFI441   571   424   412   408   0.92   
Natural Resources Canada693   562   595   586   526   0.76   
Statistics Canada932   691   649   549   703   0.75   
Industry Canada468   506   484   337   262   0.56   
Total dept's & agencies11,395   11,334   11,273   10,827   10,913   0.96   



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